Executive Summary

A discrete event simulation of the shop floor was built to test a range of scenarios aimed at raising on-time delivery. The model replays every job released from January 2024 through the shop's own routings, shift calendars, crewing, recorded downtime, and dispatch rules, and draws setup, run, move, and material times from the shop's recorded performance. This lets us measure the impact that each scenario has on on-time delivery and related measures: brake utilization and queue time, floor WIP, late jobs, and days late.

The model's accuracy was checked with a baseline run of every job with no changes, replicating the shop as it actually operated (the "Status Quo" scenario). It reproduced 100% of measures within tolerance, including 2025 on-time delivery of 80.2% against 80.8% measured and a year-end peak of 464 jobs on the floor against 466 measured. Section 4 gives the full validation.

We tested scenarios in two categories: (i) release and dispatch rules governing when work is released and the order in which it is run, and (ii) capacity changes that add machine hours. As shown below, the changes that add brake hours raised on-time delivery the most, while changes to release and dispatch had a neutral or negative impact.

Scenario Results: Change in On-time Delivery vs. Status Quo, 2025
Scenario Results: Change in On-time Delivery vs. Status Quo, 2025

We compared the results of the scenarios individually and in specific combinations alongside their cost of implementation, NPV and payback periods. We found that the "Operating Package" (brake setup program + additional Saturday shifts on both brakes) increased 2025 on-time delivery by 7.7 points to 87.9% without significant capital investment. Adding a robotic bending cell on top of the Operating Package generated the highest return of all capital-intensive options tested, increasing on-time delivery another 2.2 points to 90.1%. Sections 2 and 3 detail these results and ROI.

On-time Delivery, Status Quo vs. Recommended Scenarios, 2025
On-time Delivery, Status Quo vs. Recommended Scenarios, 2025
Note: net present value and payback period assume 50% of the freed brake hours are sold.

1. Simulations Tested

We considered two broad categories of simulations intended to raise on-time delivery:

Release and dispatch scenarios change the rules that govern how work enters and moves through the floor. These changes cost nothing to implement. If late jobs come from too much work on the floor, or from the wrong job going next at the brakes, these should move on-time delivery.

Capacity scenarios add machine hours through operating changes or new equipment. These changes cost labor and/or capital. The capacity report finds that the brakes are the shop's primary constraint: they operate at the highest utilization with the least buffer, and hold 44% of all queue days. Given this, we expect scenarios that add brake hours to move on-time delivery.

Each scenario changes only the inputs listed for it in the tables below; everything else stays as the shop operates today (the Status Quo). Each scenario and the Status Quo were run 30 times, each run with its own draws of setup, run, move and material times. Section 2 presents the results. See Appendix Tables 1 and 2 for additional detail.

Release and Dispatch Scenarios
ScenarioThe changeCostPotential impact on on-time delivery
WIP cap: 240, 210, and 180 jobsA job is released only when fewer jobs than the cap are on the floor.NoneThe floor carried 238 jobs on average in 2025 (flow report); fewer jobs on the floor could mean shorter waits.
Brake constraint-paced releaseA job with brake work is released only when the brakes have 3 days of work or less waiting.NoneThe brakes hold 53% of queue time (capacity report); pacing release to them could keep work from building there.
Earliest due dateEvery work center takes the job with the earliest due date next.NoneLate jobs have longer lead times across most stages and most notably at the brakes (flow report); taking the most urgent job first should ship more of them on time.
Due-date ratioEvery work center takes rush jobs first, then the job with the lowest ratio of working days to its due date over standard hours of work remaining.NoneEarliest due date ignores how much work a job has left. The ratio moves jobs with the most work remaining against their due date to the front.
Shortest processing time at the brakesThe brakes take the shortest job next.NoneShort jobs clear the queue fastest, which lowers the average wait.
Prioritize light work at B1 and B2B1 and B2 take light parts ahead of heavy ones when the other brakes are backed up.NonePrecision and expedited work goes to B1 and B2, which have the shortest brake queues (capacity report); light work could use that room.
Third color day for blackThe powder line runs black on a third day each week.NonePowder coat operations wait 1.1 days on average for their color day (flow report).
Capacity Scenarios
ScenarioThe changeCostPotential impact on on-time delivery
Brake setup programSetup standards, carts and sheets for the 12 part-operations with the most setup hours over standard; repeat setups assigned to the operators who know the part; a handover standard at shift change. Detailed in Section 3 of the capacity report.$60,000 once and $10,000 a yearBrake setups run 36 hours a week over standard, the largest single driver of elevated brake utilization.
Additional Saturday shiftsA Saturday brake shift every week from November to February (historically the months with the recurring build). Two variants: as crewed today (one brake) and both B1 and B2 crewed.Overtime of the added shifts: $3,600 a year with one crew, $8,100 with both brakesA Saturday shift as worked today supplies 6.8 brake machine hours, 8% of the weekly gap in the build; with both brakes crewed 17% (capacity report).
Second shift: robotic weldA second shift on the robotic weld cell.$83,300 a year of laborThe cell runs at 0.82 of its one shift with 2.9 days of queue per operation (capacity report).
Replace press brake B3A press brake with automatic tool changing in place of B3.$735,000 and $18,000 a yearB3 ran 1,386 setup hours in 2025, and loading and unloading tooling is 45% of a setup.
Automated sheet tower (L2)A second automated sheet tower, on L2.$460,000 and $9,000 a yearThe lasers ran at 0.92 of crewed hours through the year-end build (flow report).
New robotic bending cellA robotic bending cell beside the five brakes.$1,030,000, $25,000 a year and an operator for half its hours31% of brake standard hours are light, repeat parts in lots of 25 or more, which a cell can run.
Operating package (combination)The setup program and planned Saturdays with both brakes crewed, together.$60,000 once, and $18,100 a yearThe two operating changes that add brake hours without capital.

2. Results

Each scenario was evaluated based on its impact on on-time delivery rates in 2025 and Q2-Q4. As detailed in the flow report, this Q2-Q4 period excludes the significant capacity constraints and backlog build in Q1, and so presents a view of the scenario's performance in more normalized operating periods.

Each result in this section is a scenario's average over its 30 runs less the Status Quo's average over its 30 runs, with a 95% confidence interval: the range the true effect likely falls in. An effect is denoted positive or negative when the whole interval lies on one side of zero, and shows as no effect when the interval crosses zero.

Among the release and dispatch rules, only earliest due date improved on-time delivery. The other release and dispatch scenarios had a neutral to negative impact. The three WIP caps, the due-date ratio and shortest processing time at the brakes make on-time delivery worse, with the cap at 180 jobs reducing it by 9.4 points, because the caps move the wait from the brakes to the release gate (3.5 days held) without adding machine hours. See Appendix Table 3 for additional detail.

Release and Dispatch Scenarios: Change in On-Time Delivery vs. Status Quo
Release and Dispatch Scenarios: Change in On-Time Delivery vs. Status Quo

Scenarios that added brake capacity improved on-time delivery. The lower cost options, the brake setup program detailed in the capacity report and additional Saturday shifts on both brakes, added 4.5 points each to on-time delivery. The more capital intensive options, the robotic bending cell and replacing brake B3, also yielded improvements (9.4 and 4.7 points); they're analyzed in more detail in Section 3. The scenarios impacting capacity at the robotic weld and laser cutting centers yielded less improvement in on-time delivery, further validating the brakes as the shop's primary constraint.

Capacity Scenarios: Change in On-Time Delivery vs. Status Quo
Capacity Scenarios: Change in On-Time Delivery vs. Status Quo

Different combinations of scenarios were modelled, and one in particular yielded the best results. The "Operating Package" combines the brake setup program and additional Saturday shifts on both brakes, the two low cost capacity scenarios. This combination added 7.7 points to on-time delivery. On top of the Operating Package, the more capital-intensive scenarios were considered, with the robotic bending cell yielding the most significant further improvement to on-time delivery.

Combination Scenarios: Change in On-Time Delivery vs. Status Quo
Combination Scenarios: Change in On-Time Delivery vs. Status Quo

Scenarios with Positive Impact on On-time Delivery

Scenarios that improved on-time delivery are shown below alongside their impact on other delivery mechanism and outcome metrics. Changes that free brake capacity (brake setup program, replacing press brake B3, and the new robotic bending cell) saw improvements across the board: decreased brake utilization, lower queue times per operation, reduced floor WIP, and improvements in both number of late jobs and total days late. Additional Saturdays reach a similar result by adding hours rather than removing work, so the brakes stay as busy as before and utilization is unchanged. Earliest due date reorders work without adding capacity, so its gain is smaller: it moves jobs about to miss ahead of jobs due later, which removes late jobs but not days late, as the jobs it delays are later when they miss. Across all scenarios, the gain in on-time delivery follows the cut in brake queue time. See Appendix Tables 4, 5 and 6 for additional detail.

Scenario Analysis: Improvements vs. Status Quo, 2025, With 95% Intervals
Scenario Analysis: Improvements vs. Status Quo, 2025, With 95% Intervals

3. ROI & Other Considerations

Five changes improved on-time delivery in 2025 and moved the delivery mechanisms and outcomes with it: the brake setup program (+4.5 points), planned Saturdays on both brakes (+4.5), the tool-changing brake (+4.7), the robotic bending cell (+9.4), and the operating package, which combines the first two (+7.7). Each shortened the brake queue, took jobs off the floor, and cut both late jobs and days late.

This section lays out the costs and expected return of each change. The return is the brake hours a change frees, valued at half of them sold at a 40% margin, plus overtime avoided, less what the change costs to run; NPV is that value over 7 years discounted at 10%, less the one-time cost, before tax. On-time delivery itself is not priced, so a change that adds hours rather than freeing them, such as planned Saturdays, shows a cost and no return. See Appendix Tables 7 and 8 for additional detail.

What Makes Up Each Option's NPV, 2025
What Makes Up Each Option's NPV, 2025

The setup program and the operating package pay for themselves if even 5 to 8% of the brake hours they free are sold. The robotic bending cell needs about a quarter of its freed hours sold to break even, and returns more than the package once the shop sells roughly 30%, while the tool-changing brake needs half or more.

NPV Against the Share of Freed Brake Hours Sold
NPV Against the Share of Freed Brake Hours Sold

The operating package is recommended first: it raises on-time delivery 7.7 points; the $60,000 initial investment and $15,400 a year pay back in 0.4 years and return $0.69M. It returns less than the setup program alone ($0.78M) because its Saturday shifts add overtime costs and free no machine hours, but adds 3.2 more points of on-time delivery than the setup program alone. The robotic bending cell is the recommended capital investment option: on top of the package it adds 2.2 points and returns $1.52M with a 2.0-year payback.

Other Considerations

Several effects of these changes are measured but not priced, and some are not measured at all. See Appendix Table 9 for additional detail.

Measured but Not Priced, and Other Considerations
ChangeMeasured, not pricedConsiderations
Brake setup program
  • 90th-percentile lead time, 2025: -1.9 days
  • Top customers at or above 90% on time: 6 of 41 ($1.49M of revenue), against 2 today
  • Top customers at or above 95% on time: 0
  • Operator hours freed: 586
  • Weekend hours per brake operator, November to February: 3.2
Depends on repeat setups going to the operators who know the part, and on a handover standard being kept. It narrows cross-training. It can be stopped at no cost.
Add'l Saturdays (both brakes)
  • 90th-percentile lead time, 2025: -1.8 days
  • Top customers at or above 90% on time: 4 of 41 ($1.02M of revenue), against 2 today
  • Top customers at or above 95% on time: 0
  • Weekend hours per brake operator, November to February: 26.7
About 3.3 Saturdays per brake operator from November to February, against 0.5 today. Sustained weekend work raises fatigue, absence and turnover risk, while a planned shift is easier to staff than one called at short notice. The record has only three Saturdays with both brakes crewed.
Operating package
  • 90th-percentile lead time, 2025: -3.7 days
  • Top customers at or above 90% on time: 10 of 41 ($3.53M of revenue), against 2 today
  • Top customers at or above 95% on time: 0
  • Operator hours freed: 546
  • Weekend hours per brake operator, November to February: 26.7
Both of the above.
Robotic cell, on top of the package
  • 90th-percentile lead time, 2025: -1.5 days
  • Top customers at or above 90% on time: 17 of 41 ($11.54M of revenue), against 2 today
  • Top customers at or above 95% on time: 3
  • Operator hours freed: 869
  • Weekend hours per brake operator, November to February: 26.7
Runs only light, repeat parts in lots of 25 or more, so its value depends on that work staying 31% of brake hours. Adds 204 setup hours a year to the manual brakes. Needs in-house programming skills. Gives headroom to quote more work. It is the largest sum at risk and cannot be reversed.
Replace brake B3, on top of the package
  • 90th-percentile lead time, 2025: -0.7 days
  • Top customers at or above 90% on time: 15 of 41 ($8.14M of revenue), against 2 today
  • Top customers at or above 95% on time: 2
  • Operator hours freed: 490
  • Weekend hours per brake operator, November to February: 26.7
B3 is out of service while it is replaced. The effect is limited to B3's setups. One vendor maintains it.

4. Model Accuracy & Validation

How the model works

The model takes each job as the shop released it and moves it through its routing, machine by machine, under the shop's shift calendars and dispatch rules. The model uses actual production data for release dates, routings, standards, due dates, rush flags, and machine downtime. What varies from job to job, how long each setup and run takes and how long a job waits for material, a move or outside processing, is drawn from the shop's 2025 distributions.

What the Model Uses
ElementHow it is modelledSource
JobsEvery job released from January 2024: release date, routing, setup and run standards, quantity, due date, rush flag and planned operation dates.Taken from the record
Machines and calendarsShift calendars by work center and day, the shifts each machine is crewed, every recorded downtime event and the powder color schedule.Taken from the record
DispatchRush first, then jobs due within 2 working days, then planned start. Brake classes by machine, setups grouped on the same tooling up to three in a row, and the 10:00 daily list at the single-shift work centers.Taken from the record
Laser sheet groupingA job of two or more sheets is cut on arrival; a single-sheet job waits for a second job on its sheet or for 2 working days before its planned start.Estimated from the record
Setup and run timeActual over standard by work center and size of operation; at the brakes by whether the setup is grouped and by lot size.Drawn from the shop's 2025 distributions
Waits between operationsMaterial wait at the first operation by routing class; move and hold time by work center; outside processing time; complete to ship.Drawn from the shop's 2025 distributions
Brake hours worked0.965 of crewed hours on an ordinary weekday, 0.882 in a holiday week, fitted on weeks with work waiting.Estimated from the record
Saturday and extended brake shiftsA Saturday is called on 15% to 80% of Fridays by the jobs at the brakes, and worked on 55% of those, on one brake at 0.854 of its hours. An extended shift yields 0.196 of its hours. All fitted on the record's shifts.Estimated from the record
Laser hours worked0.909 of crewed hours, fitted on weeks with over 90 jobs at the lasers.Estimated from the record
Operator familiarityA reduction in brake setup time in proportion to the hours measured in the capacity report.Estimated from the record

Not modelled: scrap and rework as events, operator absence and assignment by name, holds as events, nests and sheets, quoting, and the customer's response to delivery; orders and due dates are those of the record under every scenario.

Model accuracy

The model reproduces the shop within tolerance on all ten measures set before it was run. Outside those ten, queue time at the punch (0.64 days against 1.06) and at the lasers (1.71 against 1.39) and the 10th-percentile lead time for 2025 (4.8 days against 4.2) are the only figures more than 10% from measured. See Appendix Tables 10 and 11 for additional detail.

Model Against Measured, the Ten Measures Set Before the Model Was Run
Model Against Measured, the Ten Measures Set Before the Model Was Run

The brakes and the robotic weld cell, the two work centers that hold a queue, sit within 1.2 points of measured utilization and 2% of measured queue time.

Utilization and Queue Time by Work Center, Measured Against Model, 2025
Utilization and Queue Time by Work Center, Measured Against Model, 2025

The model's curve lies on the shop's in both periods: the 2025 median is 11.1 days against 11.2 and the 90th percentile 23.3 against 23.2.

Lead Time of Jobs Shipped, Measured Against Model
Lead Time of Jobs Shipped, Measured Against Model

Through the year-end build, the model builds and clears the backlog as the shop did. Floor WIP peaks at 464 jobs against 466, both in the week of December 23, falls below 300 in the week of March 10 and below 250 in the week of March 24 in both, and below 220 in the week of April 7 against March 31. The brakes worked 5,345 hours from December through March against 5,339, 39 of them on Saturdays against 42, and jobs shipped in the first quarter were 52.2% on time against 52.4%. The model enters the autumn heavier than the shop, with 191 to 245 jobs on the floor in October against 175 to 191, and ships 2024 Q4 at 84.3% on time against 87.9%; it has converged by the week of November 18.

Weekly WIP and Brake Queue Time Through the Year-End Build, Measured Against Model, October 2024 to June 2025
Weekly WIP and Brake Queue Time Through the Year-End Build, Measured Against Model, October 2024 to June 2025

Appendix

Table 1. Measured inputs and option assumptions

Measured inputs for 2025

Measured input2025From
Brake utilization0.906the capacity report
Brake share of queue time53%the capacity report
Brake setups over standard36 hours a weekthe capacity report
Brake setup hours5,998, of which B3 1,386the marts
Robotic weld utilization and queue per operation0.818; 2.87 daysthe capacity report
Share of brake standard hours a robotic cell can run31%the marts (light, repeat parts in lots of 25 or more)
Revenue shipped and brake machine hours$24,265,820; 16,165the marts
Revenue per brake hour$1,501the marts

Option costs, supplied by the shop

OptionOne-time costUpkeep a yearWhat it does
Brake setup program$60,000$10,000Tooling carts, setup sheets and engineering time for the top 12 part-operations
Replace press brake B3$735,000$18,000Removes 85% of tool changing, 45% of a setup's hours, on B3
Automated sheet tower (L2)$460,000$9,00030 unattended laser hours a week after second shift
New robotic bending cell$1,030,000$25,00070 brake hours a week; an operator for 50% of its hours

Rates, supplied by the shop

RateValue
Labor rate, loaded$38 an hour
Overtime1.5 times the labor rate
Second-shift differential10%
Discount rate and horizon10% over 7 years, before tax, no residual value
Freed brake hours sold50%
Margin on revenue per brake hour40%

Table 2. How Each Scenario Is Modelled

ScenarioHow it is modelled
WIP cap: 240, 210, and 180 jobsNon-rush jobs wait at a release gate, in release order, until a job ships; rush jobs pass.
Brake constraint-paced releaseJobs with brake work wait at the gate while the brake backlog is over 3 days.
Earliest due dateRush first, then earliest due date, at every work center.
Due-date ratioRush first, then the lowest ratio of time to the due date over standard hours remaining.
Shortest processing time at the brakesRush first, then the least standard hours, at the brakes only.
Prioritize light work at B1 and B2When over 2 days of light and heavy work waits, B1 and B2 take light parts before heavy.
Third color day for blackBlack is added to the color schedule on Fridays.
Brake setup programThe 12 part-operations set up at standard; the other brake setups shorter by the assignment and handover hours measured.
Additional Saturday shiftsA Saturday shift every week from November through February: one brake at the Saturday yield, or B1 and B2 at the weekday yield.
Second shift: robotic weldThe cell is crewed for a second shift every working day.
Replace press brake B3Setups on B3 shorter by 38%.
Automated sheet tower (L2)L2 cuts unattended for 6 hours after second shift on every working day.
New robotic bending cellA sixth brake on two shifts at 70 hours a week that takes only those parts.
Operating package (combination)Both changes in one run.

Table 3. Release hold under the WIP caps and constraint-paced release

ScenarioMean working days held before releaseOn-time delivery (points)Floor WIP (jobs)Queue per brake operation (days)Median lead time (days)
WIP cap: 240 jobs1.15+0.0 (-1.4 to +1.4)+3.1 (-1.5 to +7.6)-0.78 (-0.94 to -0.62)+0.37 (+0.13 to +0.61)
WIP cap: 210 jobs1.79-1.6 (-3.0 to -0.2)+8.7 (+3.4 to +14.0)-1.23 (-1.38 to -1.08)+0.67 (+0.35 to +0.98)
WIP cap: 180 jobs3.49-9.4 (-11.8 to -7.1)+40.0 (+31.9 to +48.0)-1.78 (-1.91 to -1.65)+2.60 (+2.18 to +3.02)
Brake constraint-paced release0.30-0.1 (-1.3 to +1.1)+2.5 (-1.5 to +6.6)-0.66 (-0.82 to -0.49)+0.13 (-0.11 to +0.38)

Table 4. Scenario results, 2025: current practice, and each scenario as a difference from it with 95% intervals

Current practice

OutcomeCurrent practice
On-time delivery80.2%
Late jobs1,021
Days late3,768
Queue per brake operation (days)3.02
Floor WIP (jobs)238.3
Brake utilization91.3%
Median lead time (days)11.07
90th-percentile lead time (days)23.34
Queue per operation, all work centers (days)1.47
Robotic weld utilization83.1%
Laser utilization75.5%
Jobs shipped5,149

Primary and supporting outcomes

ScenarioVerdictOn-time delivery (points)Late jobsDays lateQueue per brake operation (days)Floor WIP (jobs)Brake utilization (points)
WIP cap: 240 jobsMakes it worse+0.0 (-1.4 to +1.4)-2 (-76 to +72)+261 (-142 to +665)-0.78 (-0.94 to -0.62)+3.1 (-1.5 to +7.6)+1.0 (+0.7 to +1.3)
WIP cap: 210 jobsMakes it worse-1.6 (-3.0 to -0.2)+85 (+12 to +157)+930 (+551 to +1,310)-1.23 (-1.38 to -1.08)+8.7 (+3.4 to +14.0)+1.5 (+1.2 to +1.8)
WIP cap: 180 jobsMakes it worse-9.4 (-11.8 to -7.1)+485 (+363 to +608)+3,592 (+2,805 to +4,378)-1.78 (-1.91 to -1.65)+40.0 (+31.9 to +48.0)+1.4 (+1.1 to +1.7)
Brake constraint-paced releaseNo effect-0.1 (-1.3 to +1.1)+5 (-60 to +69)+77 (-258 to +413)-0.66 (-0.82 to -0.49)+2.5 (-1.5 to +6.6)+0.7 (+0.4 to +1.0)
Earliest due dateWorks+1.9 (+0.9 to +2.9)-99 (-151 to -48)+61 (-207 to +329)-0.25 (-0.42 to -0.07)-8.6 (-11.9 to -5.3)+0.1 (-0.2 to +0.3)
Due-date ratioMakes it worse-7.5 (-8.6 to -6.4)+383 (+325 to +441)+1,952 (+1,639 to +2,265)+0.31 (+0.12 to +0.50)+20.9 (+17.0 to +24.8)-0.1 (-0.4 to +0.2)
Shortest processing time at the brakesMakes it worse-0.4 (-1.6 to +0.9)+17 (-50 to +84)+662 (+270 to +1,053)-0.53 (-0.76 to -0.31)-8.9 (-13.5 to -4.3)+0.5 (+0.2 to +0.8)
Prioritize light work at B1 and B2No effect+0.0 (-1.0 to +1.1)-1 (-55 to +54)-3 (-292 to +286)-0.02 (-0.18 to +0.15)+0.2 (-3.1 to +3.5)-0.1 (-0.4 to +0.2)
Third color day for blackNo effect-0.7 (-1.7 to +0.3)+36 (-16 to +87)+181 (-97 to +460)+0.18 (+0.02 to +0.34)+2.4 (-1.0 to +5.9)-0.1 (-0.4 to +0.1)
Brake setup programWorks+4.5 (+3.6 to +5.3)-231 (-275 to -187)-976 (-1,203 to -750)-0.93 (-1.09 to -0.77)-18.0 (-21.2 to -14.8)-2.9 (-3.2 to -2.6)
Add'l Saturdays (one brake)Works+1.4 (+0.5 to +2.3)-71 (-116 to -26)-313 (-548 to -78)-0.24 (-0.41 to -0.08)-3.9 (-7.4 to -0.5)-0.2 (-0.5 to +0.1)
Add'l Saturdays (both brakes)Works+4.5 (+3.5 to +5.5)-232 (-283 to -181)-976 (-1,231 to -721)-0.80 (-0.96 to -0.64)-15.4 (-18.8 to -12.0)-0.0 (-0.3 to +0.2)
Second shift: robotic weldWorks+0.9 (-0.3 to +2.0)-44 (-103 to +14)-252 (-545 to +41)+0.05 (-0.13 to +0.23)-2.7 (-6.4 to +1.0)-0.0 (-0.3 to +0.2)
Replace press brake B3Works+4.7 (+3.8 to +5.5)-240 (-285 to -195)-1,018 (-1,241 to -795)-0.95 (-1.08 to -0.81)-18.5 (-21.1 to -15.8)-2.6 (-2.8 to -2.3)
Automated sheet tower (L2)No effect+0.7 (-0.4 to +1.9)-37 (-96 to +22)-120 (-428 to +188)+0.38 (+0.21 to +0.55)-4.9 (-8.2 to -1.5)-0.2 (-0.4 to +0.1)
New robotic bending cellWorks+9.4 (+8.6 to +10.3)-486 (-532 to -441)-1,840 (-2,062 to -1,617)-2.39 (-2.51 to -2.26)-46.4 (-49.4 to -43.4)-10.2 (-10.5 to -9.9)
Operating packageWorks+7.7 (+6.9 to +8.5)-395 (-439 to -351)-1,575 (-1,781 to -1,368)-1.70 (-1.84 to -1.57)-33.0 (-35.7 to -30.3)-3.1 (-3.3 to -2.8)
Package + B3 replacementWorks+8.7 (+7.9 to +9.4)-446 (-486 to -406)-1,719 (-1,934 to -1,505)-2.06 (-2.19 to -1.94)-40.4 (-43.1 to -37.7)-5.9 (-6.1 to -5.6)
Package + sheet towerWorks+7.6 (+6.7 to +8.4)-388 (-431 to -345)-1,556 (-1,771 to -1,341)-1.37 (-1.51 to -1.24)-38.0 (-41.0 to -35.1)-3.5 (-3.7 to -3.2)
Package + robotic bending cellWorks+9.9 (+9.0 to +10.8)-510 (-556 to -464)-1,905 (-2,140 to -1,670)-2.58 (-2.71 to -2.46)-50.2 (-53.0 to -47.4)-14.1 (-14.4 to -13.8)
Package + earliest due dateWorks+7.7 (+7.0 to +8.5)-398 (-436 to -359)-1,278 (-1,493 to -1,063)-1.82 (-1.93 to -1.70)-37.3 (-39.8 to -34.9)-3.1 (-3.3 to -2.8)

Further outcomes

ScenarioMedian lead time (days)90th-percentile lead time (days)Queue per operation, all work centers (days)Robotic weld utilization (points)Laser utilization (points)Jobs shipped
WIP cap: 240 jobs+0.37 (+0.13 to +0.61)-0.10 (-0.65 to +0.45)-0.25 (-0.28 to -0.22)+0.7 (-0.2 to +1.7)+0.3 (-0.0 to +0.6)-2 (-15 to +10)
WIP cap: 210 jobs+0.67 (+0.35 to +0.98)+0.17 (-0.37 to +0.70)-0.34 (-0.37 to -0.31)+1.0 (+0.1 to +1.9)+0.0 (-0.3 to +0.3)+10 (+1 to +19)
WIP cap: 180 jobs+2.60 (+2.18 to +3.02)+1.67 (+1.03 to +2.30)-0.48 (-0.50 to -0.45)+0.1 (-0.7 to +0.8)-0.1 (-0.4 to +0.2)-2 (-13 to +10)
Brake constraint-paced release+0.13 (-0.11 to +0.38)+0.13 (-0.34 to +0.61)-0.06 (-0.09 to -0.03)-0.3 (-1.1 to +0.5)-0.2 (-0.6 to +0.2)+4 (-7 to +15)
Earliest due date-0.73 (-0.94 to -0.52)-0.27 (-0.68 to +0.14)-0.08 (-0.11 to -0.05)+0.7 (-0.3 to +1.7)+0.1 (-0.2 to +0.4)-16 (-24 to -7)
Due-date ratio+0.83 (+0.55 to +1.12)+2.40 (+2.01 to +2.79)+0.21 (+0.17 to +0.25)-0.3 (-1.1 to +0.6)-0.0 (-0.4 to +0.3)-10 (-20 to -0)
Shortest processing time at the brakes-0.80 (-1.06 to -0.54)-0.42 (-1.00 to +0.17)-0.08 (-0.13 to -0.04)+1.3 (+0.3 to +2.3)-0.1 (-0.4 to +0.3)-7 (-18 to +4)
Prioritize light work at B1 and B2+0.03 (-0.17 to +0.23)+0.17 (-0.24 to +0.58)+0.00 (-0.03 to +0.03)+0.1 (-0.8 to +0.9)-0.1 (-0.4 to +0.2)+1 (-8 to +10)
Third color day for black+0.10 (-0.14 to +0.34)+0.30 (-0.12 to +0.72)+0.02 (-0.01 to +0.05)-0.5 (-1.4 to +0.4)-0.0 (-0.3 to +0.3)+3 (-4 to +9)
Brake setup program-0.87 (-1.05 to -0.69)-1.87 (-2.25 to -1.49)-0.17 (-0.20 to -0.14)+0.1 (-0.9 to +1.1)-0.0 (-0.4 to +0.4)+4 (-3 to +10)
Add'l Saturdays (one brake)-0.20 (-0.50 to +0.10)-0.33 (-0.71 to +0.05)-0.03 (-0.06 to -0.00)-0.2 (-1.4 to +0.9)+0.1 (-0.2 to +0.5)+5 (-3 to +12)
Add'l Saturdays (both brakes)-0.83 (-1.02 to -0.64)-1.80 (-2.22 to -1.38)-0.14 (-0.17 to -0.11)+0.5 (-0.3 to +1.4)-0.1 (-0.4 to +0.3)+4 (-5 to +14)
Second shift: robotic weld-0.30 (-0.61 to +0.01)-0.18 (-0.63 to +0.27)-0.02 (-0.06 to +0.01)-42.4 (-43.2 to -41.6)-0.2 (-0.6 to +0.2)-1 (-11 to +9)
Replace press brake B3-0.87 (-1.05 to -0.69)-1.90 (-2.22 to -1.58)-0.17 (-0.19 to -0.14)-0.1 (-1.1 to +0.9)+0.1 (-0.2 to +0.3)+4 (-6 to +15)
Automated sheet tower (L2)-0.35 (-0.60 to -0.10)-0.17 (-0.65 to +0.31)-0.04 (-0.07 to -0.01)-0.8 (-1.8 to +0.2)-11.2 (-11.5 to -10.8)+2 (-9 to +13)
New robotic bending cell-1.87 (-2.05 to -1.69)-5.03 (-5.38 to -4.69)-0.43 (-0.45 to -0.40)+0.4 (-0.5 to +1.4)+0.0 (-0.3 to +0.3)+3 (-6 to +11)
Operating package-1.60 (-1.80 to -1.40)-3.73 (-4.08 to -3.38)-0.30 (-0.33 to -0.27)+0.5 (-0.4 to +1.4)-0.0 (-0.4 to +0.3)+10 (-0 to +20)
Package + B3 replacement-1.87 (-2.05 to -1.69)-4.40 (-4.77 to -4.03)-0.37 (-0.39 to -0.34)+0.0 (-1.0 to +1.1)-0.3 (-0.7 to +0.0)+9 (-1 to +20)
Package + sheet tower-1.83 (-2.02 to -1.64)-4.17 (-4.52 to -3.81)-0.35 (-0.37 to -0.32)+0.1 (-0.6 to +0.9)-10.8 (-11.1 to -10.5)+8 (+0 to +17)
Package + robotic bending cell-2.17 (-2.43 to -1.90)-5.27 (-5.59 to -4.94)-0.46 (-0.48 to -0.43)+0.9 (-0.1 to +1.8)-0.1 (-0.5 to +0.3)-2 (-12 to +9)
Package + earliest due date-1.87 (-2.05 to -1.69)-3.70 (-4.05 to -3.35)-0.35 (-0.37 to -0.33)+1.7 (+0.5 to +2.8)+0.0 (-0.3 to +0.3)-6 (-15 to +3)

Table 5. Scenario results, Q2-Q4: current practice, and each scenario as a difference from it with 95% intervals

Current practice

OutcomeCurrent practice
On-time delivery90.3%
Late jobs364
Days late1,319
Queue per brake operation (days)1.44
Floor WIP (jobs)202.1
Brake utilization91.0%
Median lead time (days)9.37
90th-percentile lead time (days)17.47
Queue per operation, all work centers (days)1.06
Robotic weld utilization84.2%
Laser utilization75.5%
Jobs shipped3,771

Primary and supporting outcomes

ScenarioVerdictOn-time delivery (points)Late jobsDays lateQueue per brake operation (days)Floor WIP (jobs)Brake utilization (points)
WIP cap: 240 jobsMakes it worse-0.6 (-1.1 to -0.1)+26 (+5 to +47)+73 (-14 to +161)+0.09 (-0.03 to +0.21)+4.0 (+0.6 to +7.4)+0.3 (-0.1 to +0.7)
WIP cap: 210 jobsMakes it worse-1.7 (-2.4 to -1.0)+69 (+41 to +97)+264 (+159 to +370)-0.05 (-0.17 to +0.07)+8.9 (+4.2 to +13.6)+0.7 (+0.3 to +1.1)
WIP cap: 180 jobsMakes it worse-8.5 (-10.3 to -6.7)+328 (+258 to +397)+1,389 (+1,067 to +1,710)-0.33 (-0.42 to -0.23)+41.9 (+34.3 to +49.4)+0.9 (+0.5 to +1.3)
Brake constraint-paced releaseNo effect-0.2 (-0.6 to +0.3)+9 (-8 to +26)+11 (-60 to +81)+0.09 (-0.05 to +0.23)+2.4 (-1.0 to +5.8)+0.2 (-0.2 to +0.5)
Earliest due dateWorks-0.3 (-0.6 to +0.0)+11 (-1 to +24)+85 (+24 to +146)-0.23 (-0.34 to -0.12)-7.5 (-10.1 to -4.8)-0.1 (-0.4 to +0.3)
Due-date ratioMakes it worse-5.0 (-5.6 to -4.3)+186 (+161 to +211)+739 (+632 to +846)+0.49 (+0.34 to +0.65)+19.7 (+16.0 to +23.4)-0.2 (-0.7 to +0.2)
Shortest processing time at the brakesMakes it worse-2.2 (-2.9 to -1.5)+85 (+58 to +111)+360 (+238 to +483)-0.27 (-0.42 to -0.13)-6.1 (-9.5 to -2.7)+0.4 (-0.1 to +0.8)
Prioritize light work at B1 and B2No effect-0.1 (-0.5 to +0.2)+6 (-8 to +19)+31 (-44 to +106)+0.01 (-0.08 to +0.11)+0.4 (-2.1 to +3.0)-0.2 (-0.5 to +0.2)
Third color day for blackNo effect-0.1 (-0.5 to +0.2)+6 (-7 to +19)+3 (-51 to +56)+0.13 (+0.01 to +0.25)+1.4 (-1.4 to +4.2)-0.1 (-0.5 to +0.2)
Brake setup programWorks+0.2 (-0.1 to +0.6)-14 (-28 to -0)-48 (-118 to +22)-0.46 (-0.57 to -0.36)-9.9 (-12.4 to -7.4)-3.6 (-4.0 to -3.3)
Add'l Saturdays (one brake)Works+0.2 (-0.1 to +0.6)-10 (-24 to +4)-56 (-117 to +5)-0.08 (-0.21 to +0.06)-2.0 (-5.2 to +1.1)-0.4 (-0.8 to -0.0)
Add'l Saturdays (both brakes)Works+0.2 (-0.2 to +0.6)-11 (-26 to +4)-39 (-112 to +34)-0.27 (-0.37 to -0.17)-6.2 (-8.7 to -3.7)-0.6 (-0.9 to -0.3)
Second shift: robotic weldWorks+1.0 (+0.6 to +1.3)-36 (-49 to -23)-183 (-243 to -124)+0.03 (-0.10 to +0.16)-3.5 (-6.6 to -0.3)-0.1 (-0.5 to +0.3)
Replace press brake B3Works+0.6 (+0.2 to +0.9)-26 (-40 to -13)-97 (-157 to -36)-0.48 (-0.58 to -0.37)-11.0 (-13.7 to -8.3)-3.3 (-3.7 to -2.9)
Automated sheet tower (L2)No effect+0.3 (-0.0 to +0.6)-10 (-23 to +2)-30 (-91 to +30)-0.04 (-0.14 to +0.06)-4.7 (-6.9 to -2.5)-0.1 (-0.4 to +0.3)
New robotic bending cellWorks+0.8 (+0.5 to +1.2)-35 (-50 to -20)-108 (-171 to -46)-0.92 (-1.01 to -0.84)-20.3 (-22.8 to -17.8)-10.5 (-10.8 to -10.1)
Operating packageWorks+0.4 (+0.1 to +0.8)-21 (-35 to -8)-84 (-147 to -21)-0.57 (-0.65 to -0.49)-13.0 (-15.1 to -10.9)-3.4 (-3.8 to -3.1)
Package + B3 replacementWorks+0.6 (+0.3 to +0.9)-28 (-39 to -16)-95 (-154 to -35)-0.74 (-0.84 to -0.65)-17.1 (-19.5 to -14.6)-6.1 (-6.5 to -5.7)
Package + sheet towerWorks+0.5 (+0.2 to +0.9)-23 (-37 to -10)-78 (-139 to -18)-0.61 (-0.70 to -0.51)-17.4 (-20.0 to -14.9)-3.6 (-4.0 to -3.2)
Package + robotic bending cellWorks+0.9 (+0.5 to +1.2)-35 (-47 to -22)-99 (-160 to -39)-1.03 (-1.12 to -0.94)-23.1 (-25.4 to -20.7)-14.1 (-14.5 to -13.7)
Package + earliest due dateWorks+0.3 (-0.0 to +0.7)-16 (-29 to -3)-30 (-93 to +34)-0.61 (-0.70 to -0.52)-16.9 (-19.3 to -14.4)-3.4 (-3.8 to -3.1)

Further outcomes

ScenarioMedian lead time (days)90th-percentile lead time (days)Queue per operation, all work centers (days)Robotic weld utilization (points)Laser utilization (points)Jobs shipped
WIP cap: 240 jobs+0.13 (-0.07 to +0.34)+0.45 (+0.08 to +0.81)+0.01 (-0.01 to +0.04)+1.4 (+0.4 to +2.4)-0.3 (-0.7 to +0.1)+24 (+6 to +42)
WIP cap: 210 jobs+0.43 (+0.19 to +0.68)+0.70 (+0.25 to +1.15)-0.01 (-0.04 to +0.01)+1.5 (+0.5 to +2.6)-0.6 (-1.0 to -0.2)+41 (+24 to +57)
WIP cap: 180 jobs+2.43 (+2.03 to +2.84)+2.66 (+2.09 to +3.24)-0.09 (-0.11 to -0.07)+0.4 (-0.5 to +1.2)-0.4 (-0.8 to +0.0)+41 (+24 to +58)
Brake constraint-paced release+0.07 (-0.16 to +0.30)+0.31 (-0.03 to +0.66)+0.02 (-0.01 to +0.05)+0.6 (-0.5 to +1.7)-0.6 (-1.1 to -0.2)+16 (-1 to +34)
Earliest due date-0.63 (-0.85 to -0.41)-0.20 (-0.54 to +0.14)-0.07 (-0.09 to -0.05)-0.4 (-1.6 to +0.8)-0.0 (-0.4 to +0.3)+6 (-8 to +21)
Due-date ratio+0.70 (+0.49 to +0.91)+1.97 (+1.52 to +2.41)+0.18 (+0.15 to +0.21)-0.0 (-1.1 to +1.0)-0.1 (-0.5 to +0.2)-13 (-28 to +3)
Shortest processing time at the brakes-0.40 (-0.58 to -0.22)-0.29 (-0.71 to +0.13)-0.05 (-0.08 to -0.02)+1.4 (+0.2 to +2.6)-0.3 (-0.7 to +0.1)+14 (-1 to +30)
Prioritize light work at B1 and B2-0.07 (-0.23 to +0.09)+0.00 (-0.30 to +0.30)+0.01 (-0.02 to +0.03)+0.6 (-0.3 to +1.5)-0.1 (-0.5 to +0.3)+4 (-12 to +20)
Third color day for black+0.03 (-0.17 to +0.23)+0.13 (-0.20 to +0.47)+0.01 (-0.01 to +0.04)-0.3 (-1.2 to +0.6)-0.1 (-0.5 to +0.3)+9 (-5 to +23)
Brake setup program-0.40 (-0.60 to -0.20)-0.90 (-1.23 to -0.57)-0.08 (-0.11 to -0.06)-0.0 (-1.0 to +1.0)-0.0 (-0.4 to +0.3)-55 (-65 to -46)
Add'l Saturdays (one brake)-0.13 (-0.29 to +0.02)-0.20 (-0.56 to +0.17)-0.01 (-0.04 to +0.01)-0.3 (-1.4 to +0.9)-0.1 (-0.5 to +0.3)-4 (-20 to +12)
Add'l Saturdays (both brakes)-0.23 (-0.41 to -0.05)-0.65 (-0.95 to -0.35)-0.05 (-0.07 to -0.03)+0.6 (-0.5 to +1.8)-0.3 (-0.6 to +0.1)-47 (-60 to -34)
Second shift: robotic weld-0.10 (-0.24 to +0.04)-0.30 (-0.67 to +0.06)-0.03 (-0.06 to +0.00)-42.0 (-43.0 to -41.1)-0.3 (-0.7 to +0.2)+5 (-12 to +21)
Replace press brake B3-0.57 (-0.75 to -0.39)-1.03 (-1.31 to -0.76)-0.09 (-0.12 to -0.07)-0.1 (-1.2 to +1.0)-0.0 (-0.3 to +0.3)-58 (-72 to -44)
Automated sheet tower (L2)-0.20 (-0.35 to -0.05)-0.30 (-0.57 to -0.03)-0.05 (-0.07 to -0.03)-0.2 (-1.4 to +0.9)-9.9 (-10.3 to -9.6)+2 (-16 to +19)
New robotic bending cell-1.17 (-1.30 to -1.03)-1.57 (-1.87 to -1.26)-0.18 (-0.20 to -0.16)+0.8 (-0.2 to +1.7)-0.1 (-0.4 to +0.2)-31 (-42 to -20)
Operating package-0.67 (-0.86 to -0.47)-1.23 (-1.51 to -0.95)-0.11 (-0.13 to -0.09)+0.4 (-0.7 to +1.4)-0.3 (-0.7 to +0.0)-51 (-62 to -39)
Package + B3 replacement-1.17 (-1.30 to -1.03)-1.43 (-1.69 to -1.17)-0.14 (-0.16 to -0.12)+0.1 (-1.1 to +1.2)-0.4 (-0.7 to +0.0)-38 (-50 to -26)
Package + sheet tower-1.13 (-1.29 to -0.98)-1.38 (-1.68 to -1.09)-0.15 (-0.17 to -0.13)+0.9 (+0.1 to +1.8)-9.6 (-9.9 to -9.2)-44 (-54 to -33)
Package + robotic bending cell-1.17 (-1.30 to -1.03)-2.02 (-2.29 to -1.75)-0.20 (-0.22 to -0.18)+0.9 (-0.0 to +1.9)-0.3 (-0.7 to +0.2)-27 (-39 to -14)
Package + earliest due date-1.17 (-1.30 to -1.03)-1.20 (-1.46 to -0.94)-0.14 (-0.16 to -0.12)+0.3 (-1.1 to +1.6)-0.1 (-0.5 to +0.2)-42 (-54 to -30)

Table 6. Jobs waiting at the lasers with and without the laser tower, weeks of November 4 to December 9, 2024

Week ofJobs waiting at the lasers at the end of the day, current practiceWith the tower on L2
November 4, 20241412
November 11, 20246249
November 18, 20247538
November 25, 20249351
December 2, 202411137
December 9, 20249820

Table 7. Measures behind the return, 2025

ScenarioConstraint hours freedSaturday shifts calledExtended hours scheduledOvertime operator hoursWeld second-shift hoursRobotic cell hoursB3 setup hours savedBrake setup hours savedManual brake hours displacedMean WIP (jobs)Mean WIP (standard hours worked)Jobs shippedRevenue shippedCustomers at or above 90% on time, of 41 (their revenue)At or above 95% (their revenue)Weekend hours per brake operator, November to February
Current practice14.1113173002388165,149$24.36M2 ($0.48M)0 ($0.00M)3.9
Brake setup program59311.659110001515865932207885,153$24.35M6 ($1.49M)0 ($0.00M)3.2
Add'l Saturdays (both brakes)019.0553140015-37-122237915,154$24.37M4 ($1.02M)0 ($0.00M)26.7
Second shift: robotic weld014.11081681,992016122367895,148$24.36M2 ($0.48M)0 ($0.00M)3.8
Replace press brake B355410.857100004175525542207805,154$24.36M7 ($1.66M)0 ($0.00M)2.8
New robotic bending cell2,0116.202802,36072-3112,0111927415,152$24.38M16 ($8.35M)2 ($0.41M)0.8
Operating package56619.310266001485465662057615,159$24.38M10 ($3.53M)0 ($0.00M)26.7
Tool changer, on top of the package49120.13267003844904911987515,158$24.41M15 ($8.14M)2 ($0.39M)26.7
Laser tower, on top of the package019.64030100127352007755,158$24.37M12 ($3.85M)2 ($0.18M)26.7
Robotic cell, on top of the package1,96619.7025802,19391-2041,9661887325,148$24.38M17 ($11.54M)3 ($0.50M)26.7

Constraint hours freed are the manual brake machine hours of the reference less the scenario's, counted for the changes that take brake hours off the work. The 41 customers make up 80% of 2025 revenue. Weekend hours are Saturday brake hours crewed from November 2024 to February 2025 over the 9 brake operators.

Table 8. Cost and return, every scenario that works, 2025 and an ordinary year

2025

ChangeMeasured againstOne-time costAdded cost a yearOvertime avoided a yearThroughput value a year (assumption: 50% sold at 40% margin)Net a yearPaybackNPV (95% interval)Break-even share sold (hours a year)
Brake setup programCurrent practice$60,000$10,053$3,633$178,086$171,6660.3 years$0.78M ($0.70M to $0.85M)5% (31 hours)
Add'l Saturdays (both brakes)Current practice$0$8,071$0$0-$8,071none-$0.04M (-$0.04M to -$0.03M)no hours freed
Second shift: robotic weldCurrent practice$0$84,041$1,041$0-$83,000none-$0.40M (-$0.41M to -$0.40M)no hours freed
Replace press brake B3Current practice$735,000$18,023$4,157$166,333$152,4674.8 years$0.01M (-$0.06M to $0.07M)50% (275 hours)
New robotic bending cellCurrent practice$1,030,000$69,837$8,238$603,703$542,1051.9 years$1.61M ($1.54M to $1.68M)23% (455 hours)
Operating packageCurrent practice$60,000$15,350$0$169,882$154,5320.4 years$0.69M ($0.63M to $0.76M)8% (46 hours)
Tool changer, on top of the packageOperating package$735,000$18,426$410$147,405$129,3895.7 years-$0.11M (-$0.17M to -$0.04M)57% (281 hours)
Laser tower, on top of the packageOperating package$460,000$10,961$0$0-$10,961none-$0.51M (-$0.52M to -$0.51M)no hours freed
Robotic cell, on top of the packageOperating package$1,030,000$66,898$684$590,168$523,9542.0 years$1.52M ($1.45M to $1.59M)24% (463 hours)

2025, the parts of the added cost and the result without the throughput value

ChangeUpkeep a yearWeld second-shift laborRobotic cell operatorOvertime addedConstraint hours freedNet a year without throughput valueNPV without throughput value
Brake setup program$10,000$0$0$53593-$6,420-$0.09M
Add'l Saturdays (both brakes)$0$0$0$8,0710-$8,071-$0.04M
Second shift: robotic weld$0$83,266$0$7750-$83,000-$0.40M
Replace press brake B3$18,000$0$0$23554-$13,866-$0.80M
New robotic bending cell$25,000$0$44,837$02,011-$61,598-$1.33M
Operating package$10,000$0$0$5,350566-$15,350-$0.13M
Tool changer, on top of the package$18,000$0$0$426491-$18,015-$0.82M
Laser tower, on top of the package$9,000$0$0$1,9610-$10,961-$0.51M
Robotic cell, on top of the package$25,000$0$41,670$2281,966-$66,214-$1.35M

An ordinary year (the second half of the year, twice)

ChangeMeasured againstOne-time costAdded cost a yearOvertime avoided a yearThroughput value a year (assumption: 50% sold at 40% margin)Net a yearPaybackNPV (95% interval)Break-even share sold (hours a year)
Brake setup programCurrent practice$60,000$10,593$1,079$152,581$143,0670.4 years$0.64M ($0.55M to $0.73M)7% (36 hours)
Add'l Saturdays (both brakes)Current practice$0$9,804$0$0-$9,804none-$0.05M (-$0.05M to -$0.04M)no hours freed
Second shift: robotic weldCurrent practice$0$82,931$578$0-$82,354none-$0.40M (-$0.41M to -$0.40M)no hours freed
Replace press brake B3Current practice$735,000$18,547$1,110$150,385$132,9475.5 years-$0.09M (-$0.18M to $0.00M)56% (280 hours)
New robotic bending cellCurrent practice$1,030,000$69,563$912$504,550$435,8992.4 years$1.09M ($1.00M to $1.19M)28% (467 hours)
Operating packageCurrent practice$60,000$20,093$0$93,511$73,4180.8 years$0.30M ($0.21M to $0.39M)17% (54 hours)
Tool changer, on top of the packageOperating package$735,000$18,547$426$132,431$114,3096.4 years-$0.18M (-$0.25M to -$0.10M)64% (282 hours)
Laser tower, on top of the packageOperating package$460,000$9,562$334$0-$9,228none-$0.50M (-$0.51M to -$0.50M)no hours freed
Robotic cell, on top of the packageOperating package$1,030,000$66,409$395$559,008$492,9942.1 years$1.37M ($1.27M to $1.47M)25% (462 hours)

Capital options on top of the package are measured against the package. Earliest due date and planned Saturdays as crewed today carry no cost line of their own beyond overtime and are in the results tables.

Table 9. On-time delivery by customer, 2025: the customers making up 80% of revenue

CustomerRevenue shipped, 2025Current practiceOperating packageSecond shift: robotic weldTool changer, on top of the packageRobotic cell, on top of the package
Lakeside Conveyor Co.$3.75M82.8%89.8%82.9%91.2%92.4%
Clearwater Signal Inc.$3.19M79.8%88.2%80.2%89.0%90.5%
Horizon Trailer Co.$1.68M83.1%90.3%83.7%91.2%92.8%
Heritage Vehicle Systems Inc.$1.06M73.2%85.2%73.1%86.6%86.7%
Cedar Controls LLC$1.06M76.3%82.4%81.8%83.7%84.6%
Sterling Health Systems Inc.$0.89M75.2%82.6%77.4%83.2%84.8%
Harbor Medical Ltd.$0.78M80.4%87.3%81.0%88.1%89.4%
Westbrook Networks Co.$0.58M76.4%86.1%75.4%87.6%88.9%
Summit Medical LLC$0.44M71.9%83.4%72.8%84.3%86.2%
Northfield Electric Ltd.$0.38M87.6%93.7%88.6%93.2%93.6%
Sterling Farm Systems Co.$0.37M81.7%89.0%83.1%90.7%91.2%
Liberty Signal LLC$0.32M77.0%85.9%77.1%85.7%87.2%
Crestview Comfort Systems Corp.$0.31M90.5%93.3%91.4%95.2%95.1%
Lincoln Networks Ltd.$0.28M88.7%90.7%89.6%92.7%93.0%
Sterling Comfort Systems LLC$0.27M78.4%84.1%78.2%85.8%82.5%
Pioneer Switchgear Ltd.$0.26M85.4%92.3%85.2%93.1%93.3%
Pinnacle Transit Products Ltd.$0.26M73.6%83.1%73.2%86.0%89.4%
Pinnacle Switchgear LLC$0.24M87.4%90.4%86.7%91.4%90.6%
Clearwater Electric LLC$0.24M78.7%86.2%80.7%88.1%89.5%
Union Climate Products Corp.$0.23M74.7%83.3%76.6%85.2%86.9%
Keystone Machine Works Ltd.$0.21M72.3%79.9%75.8%78.5%78.1%
Hillcrest Grain Systems Corp.$0.21M84.0%89.0%83.8%89.7%92.1%
Highland Electrical Products Inc.$0.19M74.2%83.4%75.7%85.7%87.7%
Highland Implements Corp.$0.19M73.3%86.2%74.1%86.9%86.4%
Sterling Electrical Products Inc.$0.17M91.0%89.2%94.8%91.0%93.2%
Heritage Medical Inc.$0.16M82.9%89.6%83.4%90.9%92.2%
Hillcrest Surgical Products Inc.$0.15M81.2%90.0%82.8%91.2%91.7%
Riverside Climate Products Inc.$0.15M81.3%86.7%84.6%88.2%86.8%
Granite Comfort Systems Corp.$0.15M84.2%88.8%83.6%87.4%87.6%
Pioneer Medical Co.$0.14M76.0%86.0%74.8%86.6%89.3%
Delta Controls LLC$0.13M65.1%76.8%71.6%77.8%77.8%
Hillcrest Ag Equipment Inc.$0.12M81.3%84.4%81.8%85.1%88.7%
Oakmont Implements Inc.$0.11M70.4%86.8%72.2%87.3%86.2%
Horizon Climate Products Corp.$0.10M50.8%93.3%61.7%90.8%89.2%
Westbrook Comfort Systems LLC$0.10M63.1%73.2%64.8%79.2%95.2%
Beacon Electrical Products LLC$0.10M86.6%92.8%85.8%91.8%93.2%
Heritage Switchgear Inc.$0.09M70.3%83.7%71.0%83.8%85.8%
Pinnacle Transit Products Inc.$0.09M30.8%54.2%33.3%55.0%68.3%
Ridgeline Data Systems Co.$0.09M87.1%93.2%88.2%93.5%93.3%
Keystone Machine Works Inc.$0.08M52.8%64.6%51.7%64.8%70.0%
Northfield Ventilation Inc.$0.08M54.7%93.3%54.7%96.7%97.3%

Table 10. The model under current practice against measured 2025, with the tolerances set before the model was run

PeriodMeasureMeasuredModel (95% interval)DifferenceToleranceResult
2025Median lead time (days)11.2111.07 (10.89 to 11.26)-1.2%within 10%within
2025Mean floor WIP (jobs)238.19238.29 (235.74 to 240.84)+0.0%within 10%within
2025Brake utilization0.9060.913 (0.911 to 0.915)+0.7 pointswithin 3 pointswithin
2025Robotic weld utilization0.8180.831 (0.824 to 0.837)+1.2 pointswithin 3 pointswithin
2025On-time delivery80.8%80.2% (79.4% to 80.9%)-0.6 pointswithin 3 pointswithin
202590th-percentile lead time (days)23.2123.34 (23.06 to 23.62)+0.6%reported
2025Jobs shipped5,1295,149 (5,142 to 5,156)+0.4%reported
Q2-Q4Median lead time (days)9.219.37 (9.24 to 9.51)+1.8%within 10%within
Q2-Q4Mean floor WIP (jobs)202.44202.05 (199.81 to 204.30)-0.2%within 10%within
Q2-Q4Brake utilization0.9020.910 (0.907 to 0.913)+0.8 pointswithin 3 pointswithin
Q2-Q4Robotic weld utilization0.8270.842 (0.834 to 0.850)+1.5 pointswithin 3 pointswithin
Q2-Q4On-time delivery91.3%90.3% (90.1% to 90.6%)-1.0 pointswithin 3 pointswithin
Q2-Q490th-percentile lead time (days)17.2117.47 (17.23 to 17.72)+1.5%reported
Q2-Q4Jobs shipped3,7343,771 (3,760 to 3,782)+1.0%reported

Table 11. The model against the shop: work centers, lead-time percentiles, quarters shipped and the weeks of the year-end build

Work centers, 2025

Work centerUtilization, measuredUtilization, modelDifference (points)Queue per operation, measured (days)Queue per operation, modelDifference
Press brake0.9060.913+0.73.063.02-1%
Robotic weld0.8180.831+1.22.872.81-2%
Manual weld0.6520.662+1.00.870.82-5%
Grind and deburr0.6660.674+0.80.880.82-6%
Hardware0.6530.661+0.90.820.86+4%
Assembly0.6770.673-0.51.631.50-8%
Inspection and pack0.6700.673+0.30.690.67-3%
Powder coat0.5560.579+2.31.571.67+6%
Laser (first operation)0.7490.755+0.61.391.71+23%
Punch (first operation)0.6650.663-0.31.060.64-39%

Lead time of jobs shipped

PeriodPercentileMeasured (days)ModelDifference
202510th4.24.8+13.5%
202525th7.27.2-0.5%
202550th11.211.1-1.2%
202575th17.216.8-2.1%
202590th23.223.3+0.6%
202595th28.228.0-0.7%
Q2-Q410th4.24.2+0.8%
Q2-Q425th6.26.3+1.6%
Q2-Q450th9.29.4+1.8%
Q2-Q475th13.213.2+0.3%
Q2-Q490th17.217.5+1.5%
Q2-Q495th20.220.2+0.2%

By quarter shipped

Quarter shippedJobs shipped, measuredJobs shipped, modelOn time, measuredOn time, modelDifference (points)Median lead time, measuredMedian lead time, model
2024 Q31,0601,04092.4%90.3%-2.08.28.8
2024 Q41,1711,21887.9%84.3%-3.59.210.9
2025 Q11,3951,37852.4%52.2%-0.219.219.1
2025 Q21,3151,32693.8%91.5%-2.39.29.5
2025 Q31,1861,18490.1%88.9%-1.19.29.1
2025 Q41,2331,26189.9%90.4%+0.59.29.4

By week, October 2024 to June 2025

Week ofJobs releasedJobs shippedFloor WIPBrake queue per operation (days)Laser utilizationBrake utilizationBrake hours workedof which SaturdaySaturday shifts calledExtended hours scheduled
MeasuredModelMeasuredModelMeasuredModelMeasuredModelMeasuredModelMeasuredModelMeasuredModelMeasuredModelMeasuredModelMeasuredModel
2024-09-3097971151022052462.162.710.540.730.920.963223410000.100.0
2024-10-071051051131161912450.412.360.710.740.900.963113310000.000.0
2024-10-149696981161862260.542.320.810.750.920.953303420000.100.0
2024-10-2194941021171842020.751.710.580.600.930.953283340000.100.0
2024-10-281051051101061751910.591.270.740.700.950.933373350000.200.0
2024-11-041091091081081601850.321.030.750.810.870.913043230100.200.0
2024-11-11125125911001982130.330.840.970.910.820.8930031516110.200.0
2024-11-1812212273752442501.281.120.950.910.910.963223390000.000.0
2024-11-2510210237462983002.322.090.840.910.930.881991890000.000.0
2024-12-02125125103913393462.862.570.790.910.970.963353350000.100.3
2024-12-091401401261253623743.072.840.950.910.940.943493443210.702.3
2024-12-16148148941063913924.244.760.960.910.950.953363430100.301.5
2024-12-23818117274664604.454.701.000.910.820.8870620010.000.3
2024-12-30111145404424364.114.460.990.910.880.851451288110.340.9
2025-01-0677771081044204135.185.250.860.910.900.933193360400.8123.1
2025-01-1380801401313773795.384.581.000.910.810.933103448310.8167.5
2025-01-20909075963633546.625.970.840.890.930.923513470310.9810.0
2025-01-27939399903673539.288.300.430.640.960.923623500300.72010.8
2025-02-0397971111093503488.457.340.830.810.960.923493398310.8410.5
2025-02-101031031271163373409.369.180.650.730.910.923533470210.71611.6
2025-02-171101101151033273388.358.730.770.780.920.923453438310.989.9
2025-02-241021021051113143307.957.900.800.690.950.923643467310.8129.7
2025-03-0394941021173133188.769.320.600.610.890.913253440310.9011.3
2025-03-1091911081152982948.598.960.770.770.940.923553490310.8810.1
2025-03-1789891101042792746.057.660.790.720.930.933283450200.608.4
2025-03-2493931381152262455.126.220.570.540.970.953433430100.202.8
2025-03-3186861161202102202.933.290.780.750.950.953263280000.200.3
2025-04-07105105961081912061.852.360.620.750.920.953193310000.100.0
2025-04-149090981032042012.622.130.810.740.990.963503400000.100.0
2025-04-2184841111071751771.561.870.580.610.890.913133220000.200.0
2025-04-28122122103941841901.061.000.910.840.960.933303240000.200.0
2025-05-0511311376942012091.451.110.810.810.940.963313360000.000.0
2025-05-1293931031072192122.741.600.710.760.990.963423330000.100.0
2025-05-191201201131112142082.331.560.780.760.960.953423291010.200.0
2025-05-26585882762011991.821.720.660.720.990.872742440100.200.0
2025-06-0290901241201851820.471.320.410.430.840.893103170010.000.0
2025-06-091061061051061621640.350.420.560.570.650.742272620000.200.0
2025-06-16113113109961631760.400.310.920.820.690.792472870100.300.0
2025-06-23979765941711750.870.720.760.740.960.933413330000.100.0

Queue is working days from the end of the previous operation to the start; for the lasers and the punch, the first-operation queue. The powder coat queue includes the wait for the color day. The record does not separate extended-shift brake hours from weekday hours.